Victor Moran, the CEO of a 1,200-person cleaning business in Maryland, carefully screens new hires to ensure they are authorized to work in the US. Despite these efforts, President Donald Trump’s actions against immigrants are starting to affect his workforce. About 15 employees have left his company, Total Quality, since Trump won the fight to remove temporary protections from immigrants from Venezuela and Nicaragua, making them vulnerable to deportation. If the White House expands its efforts, it could potentially cost him hundreds more workers who rely on similar work permits and would be difficult to replace.
Similar concerns are being echoed by businesses across the US, as Trump’s deportation efforts seem to be gaining momentum, threatening to disrupt a crucial source of workers for the US economy. According to census data, nearly one in five workers in the US was an immigrant last year, a record high since 1994 when it was less than 10%.
Trump has stated that he is targeting immigrants who are in the US illegally, which make up an estimated 4% of the workforce. His promise to conduct mass deportations was a major part of his campaign and garnered support from many Hispanic voters. His administration has resumed workplace raids, a tactic that was previously suspended under Biden.
However, the White House’s efforts go beyond just workplace raids. They also include targeting individuals in the US on student visas, suspending refugee admissions, and attempting to revoke temporary work permits and other protections granted by previous presidents. These actions could potentially disrupt the lives of millions of people who have lived and worked in the US for years.
Justino Gomez, a 73-year-old originally from El Salvador who has lived in the US for three decades, is authorized to work under a program called TPS, which grants temporary work permits and protection from deportation based on conditions in immigrants’ home countries. His job as a cleaner has allowed him to send his adopted daughter in El Salvador to school to become a teacher. However, Trump has already taken steps to end the program for people from Haiti and Venezuela, and Gomez fears that El Salvador could be next. He lives in constant fear of being deported, even when he leaves his home.
Many of Trump’s policies have faced legal challenges, including a lawsuit over TPS brought by the SEIU labor union. But even if the White House is not successful in increasing arrests and deportations, analysts say the crackdown could still have a negative impact on the economy in the short term. It could scare people like Gomez into hiding and slow down immigration, which has been a major driver of workforce growth since January when Trump took office.
Economist Giovanni Peri from the University of California, Davis warns that a smaller workforce could limit the growth of businesses and lead to inflation as firms are forced to pay more to recruit staff. He also points to the example of Japan, where a restrictive immigration policy has contributed to a shrinking economy.
Many businesses are already struggling to find workers, and Trump’s policies have already cost some companies employees who were authorized to work on temporary permits. Adam Lampert, the CEO of Texas-based Cambridge Caregivers and Manchester Care Homes, which provides assisted living and in-home care, estimates that about 80% of his 350 staff are foreign-born. He says that he does not specifically seek out non-citizens to fill roles, but it is often immigrants who apply for and fill the jobs. He, like Moran, is worried about the ripple effects of Trump’s actions on his business, which competes with undocumented workers employed directly by families for care services. If these workers are forced out, it will drive up demand for his own staff, leading to higher costs and potentially forcing him to raise rates.
Esmail Porsa, the CEO of Harris Health System, a major hospital network in Texas, says that Trump’s policy changes have already resulted in the loss of some workers. He believes that training American workers to fill the jobs available in his sector would take years, given the growing needs of an aging population. He predicts that this issue will become more pressing as the US continues to clamp down on immigration, a major source of current and future workforce.
Trump has acknowledged the potential disruption his policies could cause for industries that rely heavily on undocumented labor, such as hospitality and agriculture. However, his administration remains committed to enforcing immigration laws, and workplace raids continue to be a cornerstone of their efforts, according to Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin.
In the homebuilding industry, companies are already reporting that some work crews are not showing up, which will slow down construction and increase costs in a sector where prices are already a concern. Jim Tobin, the president of the National Association of Homebuilders, says that the industry has called on Congress to reform immigration laws, including creating a special visa program for construction workers. However, he does not anticipate any major changes to immigration policy in the near future, as the focus remains on enforcement.