The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is urging for sustained financial investment to aid in the rebuilding and recovery of Syria following 14 years of conflict. This prolonged conflict has resulted in the undoing of nearly four decades of economic, social, and developmental progress. Currently, 90% of Syrians are living in poverty and 25% are unemployed.
The UNDP’s report warns that without significant economic growth, it will take until 2080, or 55 years, for Syria’s economy to reach its pre-conflict GDP levels. In order to achieve a self-sustaining future and promote peace and prosperity, UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner emphasizes the need for long-term investment in development. This includes restoring productivity for job creation, revitalizing agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services such as healthcare, education, and energy.
The Syrian civil war began in March 2011 as a result of pro-democracy protests against President Bashar Al-Assad, who was eventually overthrown in December 2024. According to the UNDP, this conflict has claimed the lives of nearly 618,000 people, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in recent history. Additionally, 113,000 people have been forcibly disappeared with their whereabouts still unknown.
The impact of the conflict extends beyond loss of life, with over 7.2 million Syrians displaced within the country and another six million living as refugees abroad. This accounts for more than half of the country’s population.
In 2010, Syria’s GDP was $62 billion, but it has since decreased by more than half, resulting in an estimated $800 billion loss over the course of the conflict. The average annual growth rate over the past five years has been only 1.3%, meaning it would take 55 years to restore pre-conflict GDP levels at this rate. In order to achieve recovery in just 10 years, the annual economic growth rate would need to increase six-fold.
The conflict has also led to a significant increase in poverty, with the poverty rate nearly tripling from 33% before the conflict to 90% today. Extreme poverty has also risen from 11% to 66%, a six-fold increase. Additionally, between 40-50% of children aged six to 15 are not attending school, and 5.4 million people have lost their jobs.
The energy sector has also been greatly affected, with 80% of energy capacity lost. In 2010, Syria generated 9,000 megawatts, but this has since dropped to less than 1,500 megawatts. 70% of power plants have been damaged, and 75% of the national grid capacity has been lost.
Abdallah Al Dardari, UNDP’s Assistant Administrator and Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States, states that out of 5.5 million homes in 2010, 328,000 have been fully destroyed and one out of three houses have been damaged or destroyed. This means that 5.7 million people are in need of shelter support.
Al Dardari also highlights the decline in Syria’s Human Development Index (HDI), which is a measure of development that combines health, education, and income indicators. Today, Syria’s HDI is lower than it was in 1990, indicating a loss of 40 years in human development. The UNDP report outlines several scenarios for the country’s recovery, with the most optimistic option being a 10-year recovery plan with a 7.6% annual growth rate. A 15-year recovery would require 5% annual growth, while a no-conflict scenario would necessitate nearly 14% annual growth.
UNDP has presented these figures to senior officials from Syria’s caretaker authorities in both group and bilateral meetings, and the report will officially be presented to them on Friday. Al Dardari also mentions that in addition to this report, UNDP will begin engaging in discussions for recovery and reconstruction efforts in Syria. This will include a comprehensive strategy for governance reform, economic stabilization, sector revitalization, infrastructure rebuilding, and improved social services.