At the recent G20 summit in South Africa, China’s Premier Li Qiang announced the formation of an international “economic and trade cooperation initiative on green minerals.” This proposed alliance aims to include at least 19 countries—among them Nigeria, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Zimbabwe—positioning China at the helm of a new resource-focused global coalition.
Though details remain scarce, the initiative represents a clear attempt by Beijing to solidify its role in global rare earth and green mineral supply chains. China’s strategy, emphasized by the involvement of the UN Industrial Development Organization, focuses on partnerships with developing countries that are rich in critical mineral reserves.
Rare Earths: Strategic Leverage in Global Trade
Rare earth elements (REEs), including neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium, are vital for the production of electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, and military technologies. China currently controls more than 60% of global rare earth production and over 85% of processing capacity, giving it enormous influence over key global industries.
During the US-China trade war, Beijing used its dominance over rare earths as a geopolitical lever, introducing export licenses that restricted global access. Now, amid ongoing negotiations for broader export licensing frameworks, China is accelerating efforts to diversify both supply and influence—particularly as Western countries seek to build competing mineral alliances.
Expanding Influence in Africa and Asia
Chinese policymakers have expressed increasing concern over Western-led mineral partnerships. According to a May article in the Communist Party’s Study Times, authored by a Ministry of Ecology and Environment think-tank head, the U.S. and its allies have been integrating countries like Zambia and Angola into their own resource coalitions to curb Chinese imports.
In response, Beijing is now repositioning itself as a development partner rather than a dominant buyer. This is crucial, as China’s own domestic reserves of critical upstream minerals—such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese—represent less than 5% of global totals. The sustainability of its industrial strategy depends on access to external sources, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia.
What Does the New Alliance Mean?
Premier Li’s remarks hinted at a cooperative framework that emphasizes equitable distribution of value, responsible use, and reduced militarization of mineral resources. While monetary commitments and operational frameworks are still vague, the symbolism is clear: China is leveraging South-South cooperation to strengthen its geopolitical position.
The Ministry of Commerce emphasized that any international activities under this initiative must comply with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules—a signal to the West that China intends to position itself as both a rule-abiding and strategically savvy global player.
Implications for Global Markets
As the global economy accelerates its green transition, demand for rare earths is projected to grow exponentially. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand for critical minerals could quadruple by 2040 under a scenario aligned with climate goals.
For businesses and investors, the rise of competing mineral alliances introduces complexity—but also opportunity. Strategic forecasting and risk analysis will be essential in navigating new trade routes, evaluating supplier reliability, and assessing geopolitical exposure.
In the coming decade, control over mineral inputs may prove as pivotal as control over energy in the 20th century.