Mongolia, long dependent on its abundant coal, copper, and iron ore, is recalibrating its extractive sector. Today, uranium is at the center of this transition. With global uranium demand forecast to grow 30% by 2030 and potentially double by 2040, Mongolia is uniquely positioned — geographically and geologically — to play a critical role.
According to the World Nuclear Association, this surge is fueled by two forces: the energy needs of climate-conscious economies and the exponential growth of AI-driven data centers. However, uranium supply has not kept pace. The result: a global scramble for stable, diversified sources.
Mongolia’s Untapped Uranium Wealth
Mongolia holds approximately 190,000 tons of identified uranium resources — about 3% of global reserves — placing it alongside the U.S. and China in uranium potential. There are 13 known deposits, and official estimates suggest Mongolia’s total reserves may reach 1.5 million tons. Yet, the country has not achieved sustained commercial-scale production.
A $1.6 billion agreement signed with France’s Orano in 2024 for the Zuuvch-Ovoo deposit aims to change that. Once operational in 2028, this mine is projected to yield 2,750 tons annually, contributing roughly 4% of global output. To date, Orano has already invested $250 million in preparatory works and pilot operations.
Lessons from Kazakhstan
Mongolia need look no further than Kazakhstan for a blueprint. A joint venture between Kazatomprom and Orano, KATCO, has produced over 46,000 tons of uranium since 2006. Kazakhstan now leads the world in uranium production, supplying over 40% of global demand.
Kazakhstan’s success stems from stable policy, wide adoption of in-situ leaching (ISL) technology, and strategic contract terms. Mongolia’s geological conditions also favor ISL, which minimizes environmental impact and could reduce local resistance.
Challenges on the Ground
Regulatory hurdles remain a primary obstacle. Mongolia’s legal foundation for uranium mining was laid in 2009, but more than a dozen amendments to the Nuclear Energy Law and several dozen to the Minerals Law between 2006–2025 have discouraged investors with an image of policy instability.
Moreover, public opinion presents another challenge. There is growing concern over radiation risks, groundwater contamination, and land degradation — all of which directly impact Mongolia’s nomadic livestock economy. The government must proactively communicate science-based safeguards and ensure transparency to build public trust.
Strategic Geography, Strategic Timing
Geopolitically, Mongolia sits at a vital junction. Both China and Russia, its immediate neighbors, are major uranium consumers and nuclear technology developers.
China’s uranium needs will constitute a significant share of global demand by 2030. Given that Mongolia already exports coal and copper to China via existing infrastructure, uranium exports could be a natural next step.
Russia, meanwhile, has deepened engagement. In 2023, Rosatom signed a memorandum to explore building a small nuclear power plant in Mongolia. A dedicated office in Ulaanbaatar was opened, with plans underway for New Kharakhorum City to become Mongolia’s first nuclear-powered urban zone.
Global Interest: The “Third Neighbors”
Beyond its neighbors, Mongolia is also in the spotlight of its “third neighbors” — a term it uses for strategic partners beyond Russia and China. These include France, Canada, the U.S., South Korea, Japan, Czechia, and the UK.
In January 2026, Mongolia joined the U.S.-led Critical Minerals Initiative, alongside 50 other nations. A 2025 designation by the U.S. Geological Survey recognized uranium as a critical mineral. A survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2026 confirmed that uranium sits at the core of the China–U.S. economic rivalry — positioning Mongolia at a geopolitical inflection point.
A Domestic Energy Future?
Mongolia’s ambitions are not purely export-oriented. There is a growing recognition that domestic nuclear energy could support Mongolia’s energy diversification, reduce coal dependency, and power future smart cities.
The Mongolian government, under the Zandanshatar Gombojav administration, is using mining reform as a tool of national wealth creation. A new Sovereign Wealth Fund, seeded by 60% of strategic mining profits from private conglomerates, aims to distribute returns more equitably.
Looking Ahead
Mongolia is not yet a uranium superpower. But it has the reserves, the partnerships, and now the investment agreements. By building legal clarity, securing public trust, and accelerating ISL-based extraction, Mongolia could unlock one of the world’s most important uranium plays.
In doing so, it can help rewire global uranium supply chains, starting in Northeast Asia — and extending much further.