The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, published on Thursday, reveals that the world’s population is expected to decrease to 10.2 billion by the end of the century, which is 700 million less than previously predicted ten years ago. This report, released on World Population Day, highlights the importance of accurate population data as the global demographic landscape continues to evolve, with some regions experiencing rapid population growth while others face rapid aging.
The UN sexual and reproductive health agency (UNFPA) emphasizes the need to use this report to address the needs of marginalized populations. On this international day, UN Secretary-General António Guterres stresses the importance of counting everyone, as everyone counts in our diverse world. The 28th edition of the World Population Prospects (WPP) provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024, with projections up to 2100. This report is crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, as a quarter of the indicators rely on its data.
The report also reveals that the world’s fertility rates are declining, with women having one less child on average compared to 1990. In more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level needed to maintain a constant population size. Additionally, nearly one-fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, have “ultra-low fertility” with less than 1.4 live births per woman in their lifetime.
The report also notes that the population has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, and is projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years. The average age of the global population is also increasing, with the number of people aged 65 and over expected to surpass the number of people under 18 by the late 2070s. This is due to the increase in life expectancy and decrease in mortality rates over the past three decades. While high-income countries are experiencing slow growth or decline in population, low-income and lower-middle-income countries are expected to see rapid population growth, particularly in Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia.
This population growth will place a strain on resources, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and will worsen environmental impacts in combination with poorly managed urbanization and rising living standards. Climate change, a major challenge, will have a significant impact on these countries, where many rely on agriculture, leading to food insecurity. The report also highlights that population growth is expected in countries such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, with a potential peak in the second half of the century or later.
Secretary-General Guterres emphasizes the importance of recognizing women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights as crucial elements of sustainable development. The report highlights the challenge of early pregnancies, with 4.7 million babies born to mothers under the age of 18 in 2024, and 340,000 born to children under 15. Investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and delaying marriage and childbirth in countries with early onset will have positive outcomes for women’s health, education, and participation in the labor force, according to WPP data. These efforts will also contribute to reducing the resources needed to achieve sustainable development and ensuring that no one is left behind.