In a significant realignment of global energy flows, India is emerging as a major force in refined fuel exports. Leveraging enhanced crude processing capacity and an aggressive ethanol blending program, Indian refiners are pushing gasoline and gasoil exports to multi-year highs — a development with deep implications for global markets, especially in Asia and Europe.
Crude Processing Hits New Heights
India’s refining throughput is projected to rise to 5.51 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. This marks an increase of 130,000 to 160,000 bpd compared to the previous year, a clear signal of expanding capacity and operational efficiency.
The rise is underpinned by strategic crude sourcing, particularly discounted Russian oil, which Indian refiners have adopted in response to Western sanctions on Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine. While this strategy has drawn criticism — notably from Washington, D.C., which accused India of profiteering — Indian officials argue that these imports have contributed to price stability across energy markets.
Export Figures Surge
Wood Mackenzie forecasts gasoline exports to reach a record 400,000 bpd in 2025. Data provider Kpler offers a slightly lower estimate at 387,000 bpd, but both figures represent a historic high for Indian fuel exports.
The story is similar for gasoil (diesel), with projected 2025 exports between 610,000 and 630,000 bpd (Woodmac), and 560,000 bpd according to Kpler. These are the highest gasoil exports in four years, with much of the volume flowing to Europe, where winter demand and refinery outages are tightening supply.
In August, Reliance Industries made headlines by shipping 2 million barrels of diesel to Europe aboard the Very Large Crude Carrier Atokos — a rare move in product shipping logistics that signals scale and urgency.
Ethanol Blending: The Game Changer
One of the less visible but highly influential factors behind India’s export surge is domestic ethanol blending. In 2025, India raised its ethanol blending rate in gasoline to 20%, up from 12% in 2023. This has significantly reduced domestic gasoline demand, freeing up more refined product for export.
As Woodmac analyst Priti Mehta notes, “The growth in gasoline exports is supported by a rising share of ethanol blending in domestic gasoline consumption.”
This shift not only aids India’s energy security and environmental goals but also unlocks new profit avenues in the export market, especially amid rising Asian gasoline margins, which are up 51% year-to-date, currently trading at $11–12 per barrel.
Europe’s Winter Strategy: Buy from India
Europe is increasingly dependent on Indian gasoil to meet its heating oil needs. A combination of seasonal demand and refinery maintenance in Europe and the Middle East is driving this trend. In October–November alone, Saudi Arabia’s diesel shipments are expected to fall by 300,000 bpd, opening a gap India is poised to fill.
Europe’s urgency is further heightened by regulatory pressure. The EU’s 18th sanctions package on Russia, announced in July 2025, mandates a complete halt to imports of petroleum products made from Russian crude — with a six-month transitional period ending soon. Imports will remain allowed only from Norway, the U.S., Canada, the UK, and Switzerland, excluding India unless crude origin compliance is ensured.
Strategic Implications
This export surge is more than a temporary spike; it reflects a structural evolution in India’s energy and trade strategy:
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India is now a central player in the global refined products supply chain.
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The shift to ethanol blending is a long-term domestic policy yielding international benefits.
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India is positioned to capitalize on geopolitical disruptions, offering stable supply as others scale down or reconfigure operations.
Moreover, with global refining capacity under pressure, India’s growing export role strengthens its negotiating power in energy diplomacy and B2B partnerships.
Final Thought
India’s rising profile in the refined fuel market illustrates how domestic policy (like ethanol blending), geopolitics (sanctions on Russia), and commercial agility (sourcing discounted crude, adjusting maintenance schedules) can collectively create strategic advantage. For analysts and stakeholders watching energy trade dynamics, India’s fuel export boom is a case study in adaptive economic strategy with global impact.