On Wednesday, Myanmar’s ongoing polycrisis was highlighted in the report “Myanmar’s Enduring Polycrisis: Four Years into a Tumultuous Journey”. The report paints a grim picture of a nation in decline, with nearly half of its population living below the poverty line, essential services crumbling, and the economy in disarray.
The report warns that with no political resolution in sight, the crisis is expected to worsen in the coming year.
Urgent international involvement is needed to alleviate further suffering and prevent a complete collapse, as the report states, “The coming year will push Myanmar’s resilience to its limits.”
The report emphasizes that a more stable and peaceful Myanmar, with a thriving legal economy and investments in the well-being of its people, is not only in the country’s best interest but also in the interest of its neighbors and the international community as a whole.
Since the 2020 coup, Myanmar’s GDP has decreased by nine percent, undoing the economic progress of the previous decade. Inflation has reached a staggering 25.4 percent, making household purchases more difficult. The trade deficit has grown to 2.2 percent of GDP, exacerbated by strict restrictions on cross-border trade. The currency has also plummeted, making imports unaffordable and driving prices up.
The country’s economic situation has worsened due to its blacklisting by the Financial Action Task Force for its failure to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.
In this dire context, Myanmar’s illicit economy is thriving, making it the world’s leading producer of opium and heroin, and one of the largest manufacturers of methamphetamines. The jade industry, worth billions of dollars, remains largely unregulated, leading to corruption and environmental damage. Illegal activities such as gambling, human trafficking, and scams have also increased along the country’s porous borders.
The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has displaced over 3.5 million people within the country and driven many more to seek refuge in neighboring countries. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) lack essential aid and protection, while host communities struggle with limited resources.
Hunger is reaching catastrophic levels, and agricultural productivity has decreased by 16 percent due to conflict and climate-related disasters. Fertilizer shortages, high fuel prices, and trade disruptions have caused the price of rice, a staple food, to rise by 47 percent in some regions. The western state of Rakhine is particularly vulnerable, with food production projected to meet only 20 percent of local needs by mid-2025, raising concerns about famine-like conditions.
The dire economic and security situation has driven many of Myanmar’s youth to flee the country, with 3.7 million migrating to Thailand by 2023. These migrants often face exploitation and forced labor due to limited legal migration options. Those who remain in Myanmar are at risk of being forcibly recruited into the military.
The crisis has also severely impacted access to education, with school enrollment rates dropping significantly due to conflict and economic hardships. In the 2023/2024 academic year, over 20 percent of children were not attending school.
The outlook for Myanmar remains precarious. The report warns that if current trends continue, poverty will continue to rise, migration will increase, and the fragile economy will struggle under the weight of ongoing conflict and international isolation.
Despite the dire situation, the report also highlights opportunities for recovery. It acknowledges the resilience of local communities and the potential of civil society organizations in rebuilding social cohesion. Engaging the diaspora through education and skills development could help retain and attract talent. Additionally, promoting women’s involvement in business and employment could boost household incomes.
Agricultural revitalization, through the use of climate-resilient crops and irrigation, is crucial for ensuring food security. Investment in environmental protection, such as reforestation and mangrove restoration, could also safeguard jobs in the future.