China’s economic footprint in Central Asia is evolving. Trade is rising fast, but investment is becoming more selective and strategic.
In 2025, China–Central Asia trade reached $106.3 billion, up 12% year on year. Exports totaled $71.2 billion, while imports stood at $35.1 billion. Yet, over two decades, the region accounted for only 3% of China’s global overseas investment, highlighting a clear gap between trade and capital deployment.
From Scale to Selectivity
China’s FDI stock in the region reached $36 billion by mid-2025, with 90% concentrated in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Extractive industries still dominate at 46%, but manufacturing and energy now exceed one-third. Notably, greenfield investments increased from 43% to 60%, signaling long-term industrial intent.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Lead Transformation
Kazakhstan remains central, with $43.8 billion in bilateral trade and 224 joint projects worth $66.4 billion. The focus is shifting toward energy innovation and industrial capacity, including hydrogen and renewables.
Uzbekistan is emerging rapidly. Chinese FDI grew by $10.4 billion, raising its share from 1% to 16%. By early 2026, over 5,200 companies with Chinese capital were operating, reflecting strong momentum toward manufacturing and export-driven growth.
Smaller Economies, Deeper Dependencies
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan show smaller volumes but deeper sectoral reliance. Chinese FDI reached $2.1 billion and nearly $4 billion, respectively, concentrated in mining, energy, and infrastructure. This creates structural dependence despite modest headline figures.
A More Focused Regional Strategy
China’s approach is no longer defined by масштаб (scale), but by precision. Investments now target supply chains, energy security, and industrial positioning. At the same time, Central Asian countries are diversifying partnerships, balancing China with the EU, US, and Gulf states.
The result is a more complex landscape. China remains dominant in trade, but its investment strategy is disciplined, negotiated, and increasingly aligned with long-term geopolitical and industrial priorities.