Since the launch of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, economic ties between Kazakhstan and China have expanded dramatically. Once centered on oil and gas pipelines, the relationship now spans across trade, investment, culture, and infrastructure. By 2023–24, bilateral trade reached $44 billion, with China becoming Kazakhstan’s top trade partner and export market.
Yet, while this trade boom has sparked impressive growth at the macroeconomic level, the benefits have not extended equally—especially not to the border communities in eastern Kazakhstan, who live in the shadow of this international collaboration.
Infrastructure Giants: Khorgos and Dostyk-Alashankou
The Khorgos International Center for Boundary Cooperation (ICBC) and Dostyk-Alashankou dry port are among the most visible symbols of this growth. The Khorgos ICBC is a visa-free trade zone housing malls, hotels, parks, and warehouses. In 2024 alone, trade volume through Khorgos reached $12.5 billion.
The Dostyk-Alashankou crossing, an older but essential freight rail hub, moved 18 million tons of cargo in 2024. Combined, these two crossings helped the two nations achieve a historic high of over 32 million tons in annual rail freight exchange.
However, this logistical and commercial success story tells only part of the truth.
Economic Bypass: Border Communities Miss Out
Despite their proximity to thriving trade routes, border communities remain excluded from economic prosperity. Local infrastructure on the Kazakh side of Khorgos lags behind. While China’s side features paved roads and modern shopping centers, the Kazakh side offers only a few small shops and limited amenities.
Many locals are employed in low-wage jobs—as taxi drivers, middlemen, or informal service providers—despite living next to one of the busiest overland trade corridors between Asia and Europe. As noted by economists, these trade hubs were built for international commerce, not regional development.
Social Perceptions and Public Dissent
Public sentiment in Kazakhstan has long been skeptical of deepening ties with China. Between 2016 and 2021, mass protests erupted over fears of land acquisition, economic dependency, and the treatment of ethnic Kazakhs in Xinjiang. Although recent geopolitical shifts—such as Russia’s conflict in Ukraine—have somewhat softened attitudes, anti-Chinese sentiment remains widespread.
Government bans on land sales to foreigners in 2021 did little to calm public concern. Many still believe Chinese capital and investment risk monopolizing key sectors while delivering few benefits to ordinary Kazakhs.
Strategic Investment or Economic Encroachment?
China has invested over $27 billion in Kazakhstan since 2005, spanning oil, gas, mining, and manufacturing. In 2019, 55 joint projects were announced. But the distribution of benefits has been skewed.
The automobile sector is a prime example. Chinese imports and assembly plants often rely on Chinese-made parts, equipment, and technicians. This leaves limited room for Kazakhstan’s local workforce or suppliers to participate meaningfully.
In agriculture, farmers in the Panfilov District, where Khorgos is located, are wary. They cite concerns over ecological degradation, such as GMO use and chemical-intensive farming methods often associated with Chinese agribusinesses.
Soft Power, Hard Realities
To counter skepticism, China has ramped up soft power efforts. Kazakh-dubbed TV series like “Kairan Qarttar” and joint film productions aim to showcase cultural affinity. Yet cultural diplomacy struggles to offset economic imbalances felt by those living near the border.
While China-Kazakhstan relations continue to grow, borderland neglect remains a persistent issue. Without targeted development and inclusion of local voices, these communities may continue to be bystanders to a partnership that otherwise defines Central Asia’s future.