The world is quickly approaching risk tipping points that could result in catastrophic impacts, according to research published by the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). The Interconnected Disaster Risks report 2023 finds that human actions, such as indiscriminate extraction of water resources, damage to nature and biodiversity, and pollution of Earth and space, are introducing new risks and exacerbating existing ones.
“With these risk tipping points, it is as though we are approaching a cliff that we cannot see clearly ahead of us, and once we fall off the cliff, we can’t easily go back,” said Dr. Zita Sebesvari, one of the report’s lead authors and UNU-EHS Deputy Director.
The report examines six interconnected risk tipping points, chosen to represent large global issues that affect people everywhere. The effects of these tipping points can also spread to other systems and places around the world, the authors of the report warn.
If risk tipping points are understood, it is possible to make informed decisions and take decisive action to avoid the worst. “Because of the interconnected nature of these risk tipping points, their drivers, root causes and influences, avoiding them will require more than a single solution,” Dr. Sebesvari explained. “We will need to develop solutions that bring together different sectors and address the drivers and root causes in a systemic way.”
The report proposes a new framework that categorizes risk mitigation solutions into four types based on their approach: Avoid (preventing risk), Adapt (dealing with risk), Delay (slowing risk progression), and Transform (system overhaul). This model helps evaluate a solution’s potential outcomes and trade-offs.
For instance, addressing the “Unbearable heat” tipping point due to climate change may involve an Avoid-Transform approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while an Adapt-Delay approach could be installing air conditioners in hot climates, although this may contribute to global warming if powered by fossil fuels.
“In our interconnected world, we can all make changes and inspire others towards transforming the way we use our systems to reduce risk,” said Caitlyn Eberle, another lead author of the report and senior researcher for the UNU study.