During a high-level strategic dialogue held on July 29–30, 2025 in Ankara, President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan convened to deepen bilateral energy cooperation. Central to their discussions was a shared ambition to significantly scale up oil exports from Kazakhstan via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a key artery in the region’s non-Russian energy transit infrastructure.
This renewed focus on the BTC route comes at a pivotal time. In the first half of 2025, Kazakhstan’s oil exports through BTC rose 12 % year‑on‑year, reaching roughly 785,000 metric tons, equivalent to 34,000 barrels per day. While this growth is notable, BTC still accounts for only 5.9 % of Kazakhstan’s total crude exports, a figure that has remained unchanged since 2024. The lion’s share of Kazakh oil continues to transit via Russian-operated pipelines, notably the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles over 80 % of volumes.
This structural reliance on Russian infrastructure poses strategic and economic risks, particularly amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving sanctions landscapes. Hence, diversifying export routes is not merely a tactical decision—it is becoming a core pillar of Kazakhstan’s national energy security doctrine.
To accommodate expanded volumes via BTC, both governments are exploring substantial upgrades to Kazakhstan’s port of Aktau, located on the eastern Caspian coast. Proposed enhancements include deepwater docking facilities, automated loading terminals, and expanded storage capacity. Simultaneously, feasibility studies are being commissioned for new marine transport corridors across the Caspian Sea, linking Kazakh ports to Azerbaijan’s Sangachal terminal, the BTC’s starting point.
Discussions also covered investment in trans‑Caspian pipeline infrastructure, a long-debated but increasingly viable concept as regional players—including Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan—seek alternative routes for their energy exports. While the idea remains politically sensitive and technically complex, the urgency of unlocking non-Russian paths is pushing it back onto the agenda.
Beyond hydrocarbons, the strategic dialogue addressed broader areas of economic cooperation, such as joint ventures in power generation (particularly solar and hydroelectric projects), agricultural modernization programs, and mining operations for rare earth elements and battery metals. These initiatives align with Kazakhstan’s long-term economic vision, “Strategy 2050,” which emphasizes diversification, innovation, and Eurasian integration.
This pivot toward energy diplomacy with Türkiye is further reinforced by Kazakhstan’s recently announced 15-year fuel export strategy, unveiled in early July 2025. The plan aims to increase refined fuel exports to 30 % of total refinery output by 2040, with priority markets being China, India, and neighboring Central Asian republics. Kazakhstan’s refining capacity, anchored by the Atyrau, Shymkent, and Pavlodar refineries, currently stands at 17 million metric tons per year, with domestic demand growing at ~2 % annually due to rapid urbanization and rising vehicle ownership.
Kazakhstan’s bet on refined exports—not just crude—represents a calculated shift up the value chain. Analysts note that processed petroleum products generate significantly higher margins, are more flexible in transport, and allow greater access to fast-growing emerging markets where refined fuel demand is outpacing upstream development.
In the geopolitical arena, this deepening of ties with Türkiye—already a key NATO member and EU customs partner—offers Kazakhstan an economic “third vector”, balancing relations with both Russia and China. The BTC pipeline, operational since 2006, offers a strategically neutral and technically reliable route that bypasses politically sensitive bottlenecks such as the Bosporus and Russian territories.
In summary, the expansion of Kazakh oil exports via BTC represents more than just pipeline volumes. It marks a geopolitical realignment, an economic upgrade, and a strategic assertion of sovereignty by one of Central Asia’s most dynamic economies. With Ankara and Astana aligning over shared infrastructure goals and energy ambitions, the Caspian–Anatolian corridor may well emerge as a defining axis for the region’s energy future.