A new chapter is unfolding in the global search for critical minerals, and Pakistan is unexpectedly in the spotlight. Antimony — a rare metalloid essential for manufacturing missiles, semiconductors, flame retardants, and lithium-ion batteries — is rapidly becoming the subject of high-stakes international interest. The trigger: growing alarm in the West over China’s dominance in rare earth and strategic mineral supply chains.
Until recently, most of Pakistan’s antimony quietly left the country via Chinese intermediaries, often acquired below market value and smuggled across volatile mountain borders with Afghanistan. However, this opaque trade is now facing disruption as US contractors and defense-linked companies move to diversify their sources.
Soaring Prices, Strategic Demand
The price of antimony trioxide surged to nearly $60,000 per tonne in 2024, before settling at a still-elevated $40,000 — up from $26,000 in September 2024. The price spike wasn’t due to ore scarcity but rather a shortage of global processing capacity outside China. That bottleneck has intensified interest in raw materials from regions like South and Central Asia.
While China controls about one-third of global antimony reserves, and Russia holds nearly 20%, Pakistan’s known share is just 1%, according to the US Geological Survey. However, geographic proximity to Afghanistan and Tajikistan — the world’s second-largest producer — gives Pakistan a strategic advantage as a transit and trade hub for regional deposits.
US Engagement Deepens
The shift in global procurement strategy gained momentum following US legislation promoting the reshoring and diversification of supply chains for critical minerals. The US Department of Defense has granted over $43 million to Nova Minerals — a dual-listed company in the US and Australia — to support exploration of antimony and gold in Alaska.
Now, Nova has turned its sights to Pakistan. In late 2024, it signed a “strategic partnership” with Islamabad-based Himalayan Earth Exploration, aiming to develop supply lines that align with US defense needs. Nova plans to purchase over 100 tonnes of Pakistani antimony concentrate for $2 million in early 2025, with initial processing in Alaska. Long-term goals include establishing a downstream processing facility inside Pakistan.
Another US entity, US Strategic Metals, has also entered talks with Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders. The company, which plans a US-based smelting operation, received a sample of Pakistani ore in October 2024 for evaluation.
Infrastructure and Sovereignty Concerns
Pakistan’s government is keen to capitalize on this opportunity. Senior advisors to Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir have floated plans to build a dedicated export terminal for antimony shipments bound for the US. This suggests deep military-bureaucratic interest in positioning Pakistan as a trusted supplier of critical minerals.
Yet the situation is far from stable. Most of Pakistan’s antimony is artisanal, mined in militant-prone regions along the Afghan border. Over 1,700 people were killed in those areas in 2024 alone. Concerns persist over smuggling, unregulated extraction, and potential cross-border blending of Afghan and Pakistani ore — posing legal and reputational risks for international buyers.
Furthermore, Pakistan lacks refining infrastructure, meaning raw ore must be exported, leaving little value addition in the country. Industry experts warn that without investment in processing facilities, Pakistan risks remaining a low-margin supplier in a high-value chain.
Substitution and Future Outlook
Despite current enthusiasm, market uncertainty looms. Traders report that buyers are already exploring substitute materials such as zinc borate and stannate, due to the high cost and complexity of antimony sourcing. Still, US firms remain bullish, with Nova stating it is ready to outbid Chinese competitors to secure long-term supply from Pakistan.
Meanwhile, Tajikistan is also attracting US interest. In a recent White House meeting, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon hailed growing mineral trade ties with Washington — underscoring broader regional competition to become a critical minerals hub.
The global antimony market remains volatile. But if Pakistan can navigate its security and governance challenges, it may yet become a strategic partner in a resource race that will shape the future of defense and green technologies.