As geopolitical tensions mount in the Gulf region, global food security is facing an escalating threat — not from grains directly, but from a breakdown in fertiliser supply chains. The ongoing conflict, including attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to LNG facilities, has disrupted two of the three most essential crop nutrients: nitrogen and phosphorus. This supply shock may soon exceed the severity of the 2022 grain export crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Fertiliser at the Heart of the Storm
Roughly 43% of global urea trade and 45% of global sulphur exports, both essential to fertiliser production, are tied to Gulf shipping lanes. These lanes have now become chokepoints due to regional warfare. QatarEnergy has halted output at one of the world’s largest urea complexes, and exports of ammonia and sulphur have been delayed or rerouted. The results are stark: prices for urea and related fertilisers have surged by over 50% in regions such as Australia, while in India, gas supply to fertiliser plants has been cut by 30%.
Fertilisers are not easily substitutable. Unlike grain, fertiliser production cannot be relocated or ramped up quickly. It is capital-intensive and deeply dependent on regional infrastructure and energy supply. This makes disruptions extremely difficult to offset.
Global Impact: From Credit to Crops
In the US, farmers like Brandon Fronning are seeing input costs rise steeply, with fertiliser bills up by $10,000 year-on-year, and government subsidies covering only a fraction of that. In South Asia, countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan have already shut down multiple fertiliser plants due to gas shortages.
Even nations less directly involved in the conflict will face consequences. A study by Wolfe Research forecasts US food inflation could rise from 2% to 4%, even if the conflict resolves soon. Should disruptions persist into summer, the inflation rate could reach double digits, reshaping domestic politics in countries like the US, India, and across the EU.
A Crisis for the Global Poor
While inflation and price volatility are political issues in developed markets, in developing nations the stakes are existential. The UN warns that 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity by June 2026, on top of the 318 million already affected.
Countries across Africa — Somalia, Kenya, Sudan — are already reporting price increases of up to 20% for basic food items. The ripple effect is already spreading. Without accessible and affordable fertiliser, planting seasons will be missed, yields will fall, and import bills will soar. Export restrictions are likely, with nations such as India and China already taking steps to protect domestic supply.
The Role of Strategy in Food Security
This developing crisis underscores the need to treat fertiliser as a strategic resource, not just a commodity. Reserves must be built, supply chains safeguarded, and international cooperation prioritised. Climate-related disruptions, such as the forecast return of El Niño, only add to the volatility.
Grain markets remain stable for now, but analysts warn that the full impact of the fertiliser shortage will hit with the next harvest. If fertiliser prices remain above $900–$1,000/tonne, global food prices could increase by 60–100%, potentially pushing up to 100 million more people into undernourishment, according to modelling by the University of Edinburgh.
For policymakers, agribusiness, and supply chain stakeholders, this is not just a crisis to monitor — it is one to prepare for. The world cannot afford a slow-burning food catastrophe layered atop energy shortages and climate volatility.