In the first half of 2025, China commissioned 21 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity—its highest level in nine years. This surge comes amid the country’s record-setting investments in clean energy, reflecting an energy landscape marked by both rapid transformation and enduring legacy dependencies.
According to a report released by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the coal commissioning boom of 2025 is the delayed consequence of a permitting surge during 2022 and 2023. That surge itself was triggered by power shortages, blackouts, and economic volatility during the post-pandemic recovery phase.
The China Electricity Council projects that total coal power additions could reach 80 GW by year-end. If this projection holds, 2025 will mark the biggest year for new coal capacity in a decade—surpassing annual additions seen even during China’s coal-intensive years in the mid-2010s.
However, the picture is not uniformly expansionary. New coal project approvals in the first half of 2025 declined slightly to 25 GW, suggesting possible moderation ahead. But analysts caution that previously approved projects still contribute significantly to the year’s buildout.
This year’s developments underscore a central contradiction: while coal’s share in China’s power generation has dropped to record lows, absolute capacity additions are reaching new highs. The result is a distorted power landscape where renewables flourish on one side, while coal infrastructure expands on the other.
CREA researchers point to structural and policy-related drivers behind the coal expansion. These include:
-
Broad capacity payments that guarantee profitability for coal plants
-
Inflexible dispatch rules that prioritize older generation methods
-
Long-term contracts that delay decommissioning
-
The absence of a national coal retirement plan
These factors create an environment where coal continues to be developed as a primary energy source, rather than a flexible backup for clean energy as officially intended.
Despite the coal resurgence, China has made progress in reducing carbon intensity. According to CREA, the country’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 1% in the first half of 2025, thanks largely to booming renewable capacity and improved energy efficiency. This shows the impact of solar, wind, and hydro projects, even as coal remains politically and economically entrenched.
Looking ahead, China has pledged to start phasing down coal use between 2026 and 2030. Whether this transition materializes depends heavily on the creation of retirement incentives, updated dispatch protocols, and robust integration of intermittent renewable power sources into the national grid.
Global observers will be watching closely. As the world’s largest carbon emitter and energy consumer, China’s energy pathway has deep implications not only for its domestic economy but for global emissions trajectories. The choices made in 2025 may define the pace and credibility of its climate strategy for the rest of the decade.