As gold prices remain elevated and uncertainty looms over global markets, a central question persists: who’s actually buying all the gold? While central banks have long been viewed as steady gold accumulators, recent trade and reserve data suggest the tide may be shifting.
A Surge That Followed Conflict
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, global central banks doubled their gold purchases, crossing 1,000 tonnes per year. This marked one of the strongest waves of sovereign gold accumulation in modern history. At the time, concerns over geopolitical fragmentation, dollar exposure, and the need for sanction-proof reserves drove this trend.
However, signs in late 2025 and early 2026 point toward a slowdown.
The UK Export Proxy: A Warning Signal
Because gold buying by central banks is notoriously opaque—reported with lags of up to six months via the IMF—analysts often turn to proxies. One of the most reliable is the UK’s non-monetary gold export data, as London remains the world’s largest physical gold trading hub.
November 2025 data showed a dramatic 80% year-on-year decline in UK gold exports by weight. While volatility is common in monthly figures, the trend suggests a cooling off in institutional buying.
China: Still Leading, But Slowing
China remains the largest sovereign buyer. By December 2025, the People’s Bank of China held over 2,300 tonnes, equivalent to 8.5% of total reserves. The country had increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, yet recent data shows a noticeable deceleration.
UK gold exports to China in November were less than 10 tonnes, far below recent averages. At its average monthly purchase rate of 33 tonnes, the PBOC would need nearly 8 more years to reach a speculative 20% reserve target. The current pace doesn’t support such a trajectory.
Price vs. Quantity: Strategic Shifts
Rising gold prices themselves may explain some of the slowdown. Historically, many central banks manage gold as a proportion of their total reserves. As the price rises, fewer purchases are needed to maintain target ratios.
But there’s a shift. Poland, for example, announced a fixed purchase plan of 150 tonnes, targeting 700 tonnes in total holdings. This move toward absolute tonnage targets rather than proportional ones could set a precedent—if widely adopted, it may keep demand stable even in high-price environments.
Still, in November 2025, Poland imported a mere 0.00002 tonnes from the UK—hardly a sign of urgency.
The Vault Story: LBMA Trends
Looking beyond exports, vault holdings offer another clue. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported a 199-tonne increase in vault holdings in December 2025. Historically, such inflows align with weak export activity—suggesting a pullback from central banks and perhaps stronger interest from private investors or ETFs.
On average, when LBMA vault inflows peak, gold exports drop to around 12 tonnes per month. When vaults experience net outflows, exports surge to an average of 152 tonnes—a pattern consistent with earlier sovereign buying.
Speculation Over Strategy?
With conflicting signals, it’s possible that the current rally in gold has less to do with central bank strategy and more to do with momentum-chasing by institutional investors and retail markets. According to analysts, gold’s strength may be fueled more by sentiment and global liquidity shifts than by actual sovereign accumulation.
For now, the great gold story of the 2020s may be entering a new phase. The data indicates that while central banks like China and Poland remain in the game, the pace is slowing, and market drivers may be shifting from geopolitics to speculation.
As always, in gold markets, what isn’t visible may matter more than what is.